长江三角洲近百年的温度变化及未来趋势预测研究

MEAN TEMPERATURE VARIATION IN THE LAST 100-YEAR AND FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS IN THE YANGTZE DELTA

利用长江三角洲地区的气象观测资料，分析讨论了本区域近百年的温度变化特征，并采用神经网络和样条函数回归等方法进行了未来温度变化的预测分析研究，及未来气候情景分析，为进一步深入研究长江三角洲的气候变化对区域经济的可持续发展影响提供了依据。

This paper investigates the characteristics of air temperature variation in the last100-year, using the meteorological data in the Yangtze Delta. An attempt is made to predictthe air temperature variation in the future in terms of neural network and spline regressionmodels, thus providing a basis for future studying the impact of climatic change on thesustainable development of the regional economy.