摘要
讨论了大气(气候)系统可预报性问题,并指出:1.线性系统、一维自治动力系统、二维自治动力系统和部分可化为二维自治动力系统的一维非自治动力系统是可以进行数值预报的,其预测结果要比统计方法更为科学。而对浑沌动力系统的预报,统计方法则比动力方法更为严谨。2.非浑沌动力系统或浑沌动力系统在非浑沌区的演化行为客观上存在着可预报期限。
The predictability of climatic or atmospheric systems is discussed in this paper. The study results show that the linear systems, one-dimensional autonomous dynamic systems and two-dimensional autonomous dynamic systems are numerically predictable, and results of numerical prediction will be better than that of statistics for these systems. But the methods of statistical prediction are more rigorous than that of numerical prediction for the chaos systems. There are limits of predicatable times for the developing behaviour of non-chaos region of a chaos system and for the non-chaos system.
出处
《地球物理学报》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第S1期13-17,共5页
Chinese Journal of Geophysics
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目
关键词
大气系统
动力
统计
非线性
可预报性
Atmospheric system, Dynamics, Statistics, Nonlinear, Predictability.
