我国夏季雨型的前期异常特征及预报方法的初步研究

STUDY ON THE PRECEDING ANOMALOUS CHARACTERISTICS AND FORECASTING METHOD FOR SUMMER RAINFALL PATTERNS IN EASTERN CHINA

用１９５１～１９９５年资料研究了我国东部夏季降水各雨型的前期大气环流及我国地面气象要素场的异常特征．结果表明，在冬季１月份北太平洋地区、秋季中国南海地区的海平面气压场有预报我国夏季雨型的信号．夏季不同雨型的前期冬季特征不同，我国的降水、气温场也有差异，４月份我国大范围的温度异常也是值得注意的预测信号．这些特征可以作为我国夏季雨型的预报信号及预报工具．

The anomalous characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and meteorological elements fields in the preceding autumn and winter months for summer rainfall patterns during the period of 1951-1995 are analyzed.The results show that in the fields of sea level pressure over North Pacific in January and South China Sea in autumn there exist strong signals predicting following summer rainfall patterns over eastern China.The differences of preceding East Asian winter monsoon are also corresponding to various summer rainfall patterns.Anomalous temperature in April over China is a predictor worthy of notice.Using these features the prediction signals and method for early prediction of summer rainfall pattern are established.Some relationships between the Indian monsoon,East Asian monsoon,El Nio events and summer rainfall patterns over eastern China are also discussed.