摘要
通过庆阳地区秋旱指数的空间分布特征及其时间变化规律分析，分别建立了秋旱指数的周期叠加、逐步回归、均生函数的预测模型，并对这三种模型用权重法、平均法、回归法、举手表决法进行集成。结果表明，平均集成法效果最好。
This paper analysed the spatial and temporal characteristics of the autumn drought index of Qingyang.Some predictive models based on the methods of period superposition,successive regression and mean generation function were established respectively,which were integrated with the methods of weighing,mean,regression and show of hands. The result showed that the mean consensus method was the best one.
出处
《干旱气象》
1999年第3期25-28,共4页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
国家"九五"重中之重资助!(969080503)
关键词
秋旱指数
时空分布
预测模型
集成预报
autumn drought index
spatial and temporal distribution
prediction model
consensus forecast
