成都市信息技术产业的计量经济模型

THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY IN CHENGDU CITY

本文针对成都市信息技术产业的实际情况，依据市电子工业局提供的数据建立了成都市信息技术产业的计量经济模型．该模型由８ 个方程组成，包含８ 个内生变量和１２ 个外生变量．根据模型的方程体系，对成都市现有的电子信息产业结构进行分析，揭示了市电子工业总产出的影响因素，提出了该行业结构优化的建议方案，并给出了一个可行的预测方程；分部类排序结果表明成都市信息技术产业化仍停留在分立元器件基础阶段。

In this paper,an econometric model has been established according to the data provided by Chengdu Electronic Industry Bureau,which shows the actual situation of the industry.The model consists of eight equations,involing eight endogenous and twelve exogenous variables.An analysis in accordance with the systems of equations is made for the structure of nowaday Electronic Information Industry of Chengdu City,which reveals the information factors to the gross output values of the electronic industry and serves up proposal on optimitation for this industry structure.It provides a feasible forecast equation too.The result of ordering for branches shows that the information technology industrialization of Chengdu still stay on the elementary stage of seperated electronic units,which means that emergency of the industry development.