天山南坡黄水沟洪水的混沌特性分析

ANALYSIS OF THE CHAOTIC FEATUFES OF HUANGSHUI GOU RIVER FLOODS IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPE OF TIANSHAN MOUNTAIN

黄水沟洪水发生的时序、强度特征表明这一自然动力系统具有复杂性。本文以42年连续观测资料为基础,运用混沌理论,对黄水沟洪水时间序列的关联维数D_2及Kolomogorov熵等定量指标进行了计算分析,表明洪水动力系统具有一定程度的混沌特征,并提出了平均可预报时间的估计值。

The time-series and indensity of the floods occured in Huangshui Gou River show that this natural dynamic system is complex. In this paper,based on the data of continuous observation for 42 years, the correlative dimensions (D2) , Kolomogorov Entropy and other time - series quotas of Huangshui Gou River are calculated and analyzed by applying chaos theory. The result indicates that the dynamic system of Huangshui Gou River floods has chaotic features in certain degree. Finally the average length of predictable time is calculated.