世界经济将如何翻开新世纪的第一页

World Economy Marching into the New Century

对于世界经济而言,1999年是两年前亚洲金融危机之后的一个转折点。在这一年中,尽管年初爆发了巴西金融危机,尽管俄罗斯仍在1998年金融危机和持续不断的政治危机中奋争,尽管北约对科索沃轰炸对欧盟经济造成了一定的影响,但世界经济在美国经济继续走强(年经济增长率可达到3.7％,仅略低于上年)、亚洲经济(包括90年代以来持续不振的日本经济)在欧盟经济由弱转强的带动下,显示出明显的复苏态势,预计全球经济增长率将比上年提高0.6个百分点。

1999 marked the turning point after the recent Asian financial crisis. World economy broke through the bleak predictions that had been lurking in people's minds since fall 1998, and showed relatively strong signs of recovery. Predicted growth rate for this year should reach 3.1%. After the turn of the century, year 2000 should see a continuing, if modest, bounce back. Growth rate is predicted to be around 3.6%. World economy is turning the first page of the new century with great aspiration.---Asian countries (regions) should continue their recovery with a steady pace.Major factors that have promoted recovery and growth in 1999 will still be present, or even be strengthened, in 2000.---EU economies' overall growth rate should rise to around 3%. The Euro will strengthen with the recover of the world economy. With a sound infrastructure and abundant labor resources, EU could feel in its element attracting investments from outside the region.---While the growth rate of the US should fall back somehow, it will still be growing at close to 3%. Although there are many worrisome signs of problems in its economy, the basics that have propelled a rapid growth have not changed a great deal. Moreover, US policy makers have been on the look out for signs of possible problems and have developed contingency plans should any of the conjectured become reality. Thus a soft-landing of the US economy is very probable.However, there are still many unpre -dictable influences, whose developments will affect the recovery of the world economy. First, the growth of American, Japanese and EU economies is unbalanced, which requires patience and time to coordinate. Any hasty change could be potentially disastrous. Second, the rapid rise in oil price could bode ill for inflation. Third, the new international financial order has not been soundly established, resulting in instabilities at financial markets around the globe. Finally, the regional political turmoil, military conflicts and the Y2K complications could also have an impact on the recovery and growth of the world economy.Under the circumstances, China should adopt a policy of stable growth. And accelerate the structural reforms while maintaining a growing economy. So that China will enter the new century with renewed vigor and vitality.