近年来大陆强震机理与预测研究的主要进展

Recent Research Progress on the Mechanism and Fore-cast for Continental Strong Earthquakes

本文简要总结了90年代以来我国在大陆强震机理与预测方面所开展的基础研究及其主要进展。主要内容包括板内大陆地震与板缘地震的差异,大陆强震与活动地块的关系,大陆强震孕育的深部环境和震源细结构,高新技术在强震机理与预测研究中的应用,大陆强震孕育发生的物理模式和前兆机理等。尽管这些研究及其所取得的进展还是初步的,但其为探索大陆强震成因机理、强震孕育发生的物理过程提供了许多科学启示,也为地震预测研究提供了重要的科学理论积累,因而是当前深入开展大陆强震机理与预测研究的基础。由于本文侧重在基础研究方面,因而对我国强震预测的大量应用研究没有涉及。

The research on the mechanism and forecast for strong continental earthquakes and its development in 1990's are reviewed in this paper, including the difference between the continental earthquakes and the inter-plate earth-quakes , the deep circumstance for the preparation of strong continental earthquakes and the fine structure of seismic fo-ci, the application of newly developed high techniques in the research on the mechanism and forecast for continental strong earthquakes, the physical patterns for the preparation and occurrence of continental earthquakes and the mecha-nism of seismic precursors. The results gained in 1990' s are somehow primary, but the research has laid a solid base and provided exciting revelation for us to know more about the cause and the seismogenic process of strong continental earthquakes. The fundamental theories are concerned in this paper and the variant practical researches on earth-quake prediction are not included.