摘要
选取１９７０年至１９９７年时间段内发生在山西地区的逐年最大震级，采用门限自回归原理进行建模，经过反复对比，选取最佳模型，预测得知该区未来３年（至２０００年）发生强震（Ｍｓ＞６．０）的可能性不大。
Based on the threshold autoregressive model and annual maximum magnitude in the period from 1970 to 1997 in Shanxi area,by studying and comparing the models repeatly,the authors have chosen the optimal model.The result shows that the possibility of strong earthquakes (till the year 2000) is very small.
出处
《高原地震》
1998年第3期37-42,共6页
Plateau Earthquake Research
关键词
强震预测
门限回归
模型
山西地区
Strong earthquake prediction Threshold regression Model Shanxi area
