天气预报在1998年夏抗洪防灾中的作用——暴雨成灾引起的气象科学问题的思考

The Positive Role of Weather Forecasting in Combating Flooding and Disaster Reduction during Summer 1998 ——The Ponderation of Meteorological Science Problems Caused by Severe Flood

１９９８年夏，长江、嫩江、松花江流域因大范围持续性降水和频发暴雨造成了特大洪水。在这场抗洪减灾工作中，天气预报是党中央、国务院和各级党政部门领导组织抗洪防灾科学决策的重要依据之一，为正确组织、指挥防汛抗洪，取得巨大胜利起到了良好作用。然而，１９９８年夏的异常天气使天气预报人员始料不及，要做好较准确的天气预测预报，不少气象科学问题还难于准确回答。因此，这些气象科学问题还需要进一步深入研究。

The severe flood caused by heavy rain occurred around the Changjiang River, Nenjiang River and Songhua River valleys during summer 1998. The weather forecast was one of the most information sources for the decision making of the government leaders and departments. It also played a important role for the victories in fighting the flood and reducing the disaster. However, the abnormal weather events appearing this summer made meteorologists having difficulty for weather predictions. Some science questions are not answered accurately. In order to prepare more accurate weather forecasting, further research is neccessary for the improvement of disastrous weather forecasting.