1998年长江流域洪涝灾害分析

The Analyses of Flooding Disaster in the Changjiang River Valley in 1998

在分析１９９８年长江流域特大洪涝灾害基本情况的基础上，探讨了这次灾害的成因，特别是研究了湖南省洪涝灾害加重与区域性强降雨过程时间变化的关系。指出近年来强降雨过程集中的时段有从５～６月份向７～８月份推移的趋势，造成与上游洪水顶托的机会增多，长江中下游洪涝灾害加重，特别是自８０年代中期以来，这种现象的持续出现，应有更深层次气候变化方面的原因。

The authors have analyzed the flooding catastrophe in the Changjing River valley in 1998, and disscussed the causes which resulted in the flooding in this paper. Particularly, the authors illustrated the relation between the aqravated floods within Hunan Province and the variation of the regional strong precipitation with time, and revealed the strong raining period moving from May-June to July-August. This could make the chances increase that the floods would pile up in the upper valley of the Changjiang River, and might cause much more serious problems in the middle and lower valley of the Changjiang River. Since the 1980s, this kind of problems have occurred frequently, which hints something significant in climate variation.