摘要
从空间分布结构、年代际变化趋势、周期变化等方面讨论了中国夏季降水量场的主要特征，以这些特征为基础，提出了一个具有一定物理基础及一定统计信度支持的新颖预报思路，设计了一套全国大范围夏季降水趋势预报方案。对１９９４～１９９７年４年的实际预报效果进行了检验。依据这４年的预报方程讨论了这一预报方法的主要物理依据的特点。
In this paper, some basic features of precipitation fields in summer over China during the last 46 years, including the structure of spatial distribution, climatic trend change and periodic oscillation are analysed and scheme and procedure of a method developed by authors for predicting precipitation anomaly distribution in summer over China are described The predictive skills for independent samples of 1994～1997 are assessed Finally, some advantage of the method are summarized
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
1998年第3期27-35,共9页
Climatic and Environmental Research
关键词
夏季降水趋势分布
客观预报方法
物理依据
precipitation distribution in summer objective predicting method physical base
