几种统计相似方法的适用性比较

An Exploration on the Applicability of Similarity Parameter in Similarity Forecasting

针对前人对各种相似性度量的预报检验结果,从公式出发,分析证明了相似离度与海明距离具有相同性质,探讨了相似离度在相似预报中使用的局限性。利用2010年5月1—30日08时东亚区域850 hPa高度场96个站点资料,对几个常用相似量及作者提出的新相似量进行相似选择试验,结果表明:(1)相似离度与海明距离非常接近,选出的相似样本80%以上是相同的;(2)相似离度与相关系数差异最大,选出的相似样本70%以上是不同的;(3)新相似量与相关系数较接近,60%是相同的。相似离度与海明距离反映的是样本间"距离"的接近程度,相关系数和新相似量反映的是样本间的形状接近程度。

According to the previous various forecasting verification results concerning similarity measurements and starting from formulas,the fact that there exist the same features between similarity parameter and Hamming distance is analyzed and then proved.Meanwhile,the limitations of similarity parameter in similarity forecasting are discussed.The data from 96 different stations at 850 hPa height fields in East Asia during 1-30 May 2010 are utilized to make selection experiments among several frequently used similarity measurements and a new one is proposed by the authors in this paper.The results indicate that,（1） similarity parameter and Hamming distance are very much similar,with over 80%selected samples being the same;（2） similarity parameter has the biggest difference from similarity coefficient,with over 70%selected samples being different;and（3） the new analog quantity is more similar to the correlation coefficient, with 60%being the same.Similarity parameter and Hamming distance reflect how much the distances of the samples are similar to each other,while correlation coefficient and the new analog quantity reflect how much the shapes of the selected samples are similar to each other.