海南岛四十年(1950—1989年)疟疾发病时态特征分析

Analysis on Characters of Malaria Time Distribution in 40 Years (1950—1989) in Hainan

海南岛是我国当前疟疾的主要流行区,为探讨海南岛疟疾的后期监测管理和提出相应防制对策提供依据,作者应用动态分析及园形分布等方法对全岛1950—1989年疟疾发病时态变化特征进行了分析。四十年中疟疾发病2,195,324例,年平均发病率1,073.41/10万,各年代发病例数如下:1950—1959年为1,169,593例,1960—1969年为489,441例,1970—1979年为305,536例,1980—1989年为150,754例。疟疾发病呈单峰季节性,各年代发病日期估计分别为6月15日,7月17日,7月17日及7月15日,全年各月都有发病病例。据资料分析,四十年中曾出现三次疟疾爆发流行,第一次在1955年,为历史上发病最高一年,前后持续六年(1954—1959年);第二次在1969年,前后持续五年(1969—1973年);第三次在1978年,但该次发病高峰低,持续时间短,前后只有三年。作者根据疟疾发病时态变化受按蚊消长制约的特点,提出病原监测应在高发病月份及时灭蚊,同时指出,海南岛疟疾发病虽逐年有下降趋势,但根据资料分析十年左右有一次流行的规律,目前已进入流行危险期,以及旅行人数与日俱增,防蚊措施与预防性服药是防止感染疟疾的两个重要环节。

Hainan Island is the main epidemic zone of malaria in China now. In order to probe into the method for later stage surveillance and management, the characters of malaria time distribution in 1950—1989 in Hainan were analyzed by means of dynamic analysis and circular distribution by authors. The total cases of malaria in 40 years were 2,195,324, the average incidence rate was 1073.41/105a year, the cases in every decade were as follows: 1,169,593 cases for 1950—1959, 489,441 cases for 1960—1969, 385,536 cases for 1970—1979, 150,754 cases for 1980—1989. Malaria was characterized by seasonal single—peak, the peak date for evey decade was 15 June, 17 Jule, 17 Jule and 15 Jule respectively, but cases can be seen in every month. Based on the date, there were three malaria outbreak, the first was in 1955, being the highest in the history and lasting 6 years (1654—1959); the second was in 1969, lasting 5 years (1969—1973); the third was in 1978, with low peak, lasting a short period (3 years). According to the feature that the change of time distribution of malaria was restrained by the anopheline mosquito growth and decline, authors proposed that pathogeny surveillance and extermination of mosquito should be carried out in high—incidence—month. The authors pointed out at the same time that although the incidence of malaria declined year by year in Hainan Island, there was a regular pattern of epidemic every ten years based on the date. Now malaria has been in high-risk period of epidemic, the number of travellers is increasing, it is very important to prevent mosquito and take prophylactic drugs for the sake of prevention of malaria infection.