应用集中度及圆形分布法分析2010年河南省急性出血性结膜炎的季节性特征

Analysis on the seasonal characteristics of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Henan Province in 2010 by concentration ratio and circular distribution

目的分析河南省急性出血性结膜炎(AHC)的季节性分布规律,为制定防控策略和措施提供依据。方法应用集中度和圆形分布法对河南省2010年AHC的季节性分布进行分析。结果河南省2010年AHC季节性分布的M值为0.895,圆形分布平均角α所对应的日期即斑疹伤寒集中发病高峰期为9月19日,发病高峰期的95%可信区间为9月17-21日,经平均角的Rayleigh’test,Z=1191.274,P<0.001。结论河南省AHC发病有很强的季节性,9月为流行高峰期。

The seasonal characteristics of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis（AHC） in Henan Province in 2010 was analyzed in order to provide evidence for making strategies for AHC prevention and control.The data was from national disease supervision information management system,and analyzed with Microsoft Excel 2003.Concentration ratio and circular distribution methods were used in this study.The results showed that the M-value of the seasonal distribution of AHC in 2010 was 0.895.The corresponding date of mean angle in circular distribution analysis was 19th September.The 95% confidence interval（CI） for the peak was from 17th September to 21st September.The Z value of Rayleigh test was 1 191.274,and the p valve was less than 0.001.In conclusion,AHC in Henan Province has strict seasonal variation,the epidemic peak was in September.