南盘江流域径流趋势灰色预测

Prediction of Runoff Tendency in Nanpanjiang Basin Using Gray Model

利用灰色系统模型和灰色灾变预测理论，根据南盘江流域27年（1961年～1987年）年径流资料，建立一套灰色动态CM（1，1）预测模型，并对1993年～1994年的资料进行验证，得到了较为满意的效果．表明灰色灾变预测可作为水文长期预测的工具之一，为制定水电站的年度防汛措施和发电计划等提供参考．

Used the gray system model and gray calamity emergence theory,according tothe runoff data during 27 years (from 1961 to 1987) of Nanpanjiang Basin,a gray dynamicprediction model was founded,then verified by using the data 1993 and 1994,the results aresatisfactory. It is clear that gray calamity emergence prdeiction can be as one of tools of long-term hydrological prediction,the results can be as references in preparing annual measures ofcontrol flood and generation plan.