遵义市细菌性痢疾季节性分布模式及防治对策探讨

An approach to the seasonal distridution models and conrtol countermeasure of bacillary dysentery in Zunyi city

为了探讨遵义市细菌性痢疾季节性分布特征,本文试用logisic曲线拟合法对遵义市1992—1996年细菌性痢疾疫情资料进行统计分析。结果显示:曲线方程回归效果显著(P<0.01),且理论值与实际值之间的拟合优度高(R^2:0.961～0.993)。提示:细菌性痢疾发病率(或发病数)逐月累计增长规律与logistic曲线相符合,具有明显的季节性升高现象,以及logistic曲线中的b值可以作为细菌性痢疾防治效果评价的一项指标。

This paper studied on the seasonal distribution characters of bacillary dysentery in Zunyi city applying the method of fitting logistic curve the results showed the fitting regression eguation was highly sighificant by analysis of variance (p < 0.01), and the goodness of fitting between theory value and practice value reached highdegree (R^2 = 0.961～0.993), It's suggested that theraising law of bacillary dysentery cases month bymonth obeyed the logistic curve, and according to theregression pattern, wr can appraise the effects of bacillary dysmyery control, because the coefficient of regression b has refected the raising speed of logistic curve.