短期气候异变与我国汛期旱涝预测

Short-Term Climate Anomaly Change and Prediction of Drought and Flood in Summer in China

对我国汛期旱涝的短期气候预测进行了评估,指出80年代以后预测水平有较大提高,但预测仍具有很大的不确定性,这与短期气候的异变有一定关系。

In this paper the short-term climate prediction of drought and flood in Flood Season in China is assessed. It shows that the capability of prediction after 1980's has improved, but the products of prediction have indeterminate. It is related certainly to climate anomaly change.