高亚洲积雪变化趋势预测

The Predicted Change Trend of Snow Cover in High-Asia

据高亚洲地区1970～1989年AVHRR可见光及1978～1987年SMMR微波遥感监测,1958～1989a高亚洲中国境内129个地面台站观测资料,以及分析探讨境内不同时空尺度积雪变化规律的基础上,用升温的80年代的均值距平(1958～1989),台站10a滑动平均一次方程拟合的趋势分析以及对比国外已有CO_2倍增下模式数值试验结果,预测积雪变化趋势。结果表明,北半球升温1.7℃背景下10a尺度积雪面积的趋势变化呈缩小,雪量变化的区域差异不断加剧。尽管雪量大部分地区呈减少,但青藏高原东部及部分山区呈增加趋势。

1970-1989 AVHRR visible and 1978-1987 SMMR microwave monitoring in High-Asia, 1958-1989 measured data of 129 stations in western China and the change characteristics of snow cover in different time-space scale are analysed in this paper. Based on the departure of 1980's mean from 1958-1989 mean of snow amount, the change trend of one-dimensional regression analysis for ten-year running means, and the change of snow area and amount in High-Asia simulated by the OSU coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the change trend of snow cover is predicted. It shows that the snow cover in decadal scale will decrease and the reginal difference of snow amount deepen. Though the snow amount in the most of High-Asia will decrease, it will still increase in eastern Tibetan Plateau and part of several mountains.