应用林窗模型研究全球气候变化对森林群落的可能影响──以四川西部紫果云杉群落为例

RESEARCH ON POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST COMMUNITY USING FOREST GAP MODEL──A CASE STUDY OF PICEA PURPUREA LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PART OF SICHUAN

本文以我国四川西部特有树种之一紫果云杉（ＰｉｃｅａＰｕｒｐｕｒｅａ）为例，采用林窗模型（ＦＯＲＥＣ）研究了全球气候变化对森林群落结构及生物量的影响。结果表明：全球气候变化对森林群落演替方向和生物量施加影响的大小主要取次于全球气候变化增量与基准气候变率之间的差异性。

FOREC model is a powerful tool in the study of response of forest community to climate change. It can simulate the change in forest composition and biomass due to climate change, and furthermore can assess possible impact of global climate changes on forest. Chinese scientists previously adopted macro-static models to study the influences of climate change on forest. Now, they started to develop dynamic models in the recent two years. In this paper, based on the studies using FQREC model, the possible changes in structure and biomass of forest community are simulated under climate change scenarios. PI'cea purpurea community is again used as an examples.The studies indicate that the different clilllatological states will lead to different changes in the succession aswell as the biomass of community. It is thought that one of the main reasons is due tO the difference between thechanging rate of basic climate change state and the increase in global climate change.(1) If the increase in global climate change is greater than the changing rate of basic climate state, theecological phase of community will the general decrease in the biomass of species. In this typical study, the timeof succession among species in the community will fundamentally be shorter than the time of global climatechange (i.e., the time when CO2 concentration doubles).(2) If in case opposite above, the ecological phase of community will still be in the proper extent.At this time,ifthe climate is suitable for some species in the community, the succession of domain species as well as the basicwill happen among the existing species, instead of the intrusion of other species.(3) In this study, water capacity is the factor that has greatest impact on forest community in the mountainousarea in Southwest China. For any community types and structure oftbrest stand, decrease in precipitation will leadto reduce the capability of species in the community while warming and no change of precipitation will increasebiomass.