摘要
自然数可以视为反映世界客观本质的一种重要秩序，即信息，它不因加法处理而失真［１］。强地震在一定的时空范围内重复出现的现象称为有序性。自１７１６年以来，新疆及其邻区７级以上强震在时间上具有良好的有序性，有些强震在空间上亦表现出一定的有序性。强地震时间间隔值以６０、３０、４１、１９和１１年占据主导分布，并且相互之间关系密切。根据强震活动的有序性结构可进行预测：该地区未来Ｍ≥７强震可能发生在２００４年和２０１５年前后。
Natural number is regarded as one of important orders which reflect the essence of objective things in the world, that is information, which is not distortion because of addition. The phenomenon of the strong earthquakes reappear in certain time-space area is called seismic order.The strong earthquakes with M≥7 are ordered in time since 1716 in Xinjiang and its adjacent region, and some are ordered on space. Its time intervals mainly are 60, 30, 41, 19and 11 years, and the relationship between them is closed very much. Based on the ordered structure of the strong earthquake activity, the author predicts that the strong earthquakes with M≥7 in Xinjiang may occur around 2004 and 2015.
出处
《高原地震》
1996年第4期19-26,共8页
Plateau Earthquake Research
关键词
有序性
强震预测
信息预测理论
新疆
Order Strong earthquake prediction
Information forecast theory Xinjiang
