摘要
根据数理统计理论和有关文献，利用辽宁地区（３８．７°－４３°Ｎ，１１９°－１２５°Ｅ）１９７０年以来的地震资料，建立了逐年最高震级时间序列的门限自回归模型和修改的震级一频度关系。同时，对辽宁地区地震活动的时空分布特征也作了详细的研究。最后，对辽宁地区未来（到２０００年）地震活动趋势和强度作了预测。
According to the theory of mathematical statistics,the related literatures andthe data of earthquakes to occur in liaoning area since 1970,We have established the thresh-old autoregressive model of the time series of inaximal earthquake rnagnitude year by yearand the modified magnitude frequency relation.Meanwhile, space time distribution fea-tures of the seismicity in Liaoning area are also studied in detail. Finally ,the Seismicity risktrend and intensity have been estimated in Liaoning area ti31 to the 2000.
出处
《防灾减灾学报》
1995年第3期3-12,共10页
Journal of Disaster Prevention And Reduction
关键词
地震活动趋势
门限自回归模型
震级-频度关系
辽宁地区
Threshold autoregressive model
Modified magnitude frequency relation
Liaoning area
Seismicity trend estimation
