太原场址烈度计算的最大熵方法

MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD OF SITE INTENSIY IN TAIYUAN Peny

本文利用最大熵原理推导了烈度的概率密度函数、烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期公式和各种超越概率水平对应的烈度的平均重现期公式。根据１０２２年至１９９３年的地震资料，计算了太原（３７．８６°Ｎ；１１２．５４°Ｅ）周围４级以上地震在太原造成的烈度，绘制了太原未来１００ａ烈度超越概率曲线，并和我国现行的地震危险性分析的综合概率法的计算结果进行了对比，结果表明两种不同的方法给出的未来１００ａ烈度超越概率曲线很接近，对太原各类不同要求的工程的抗震设防烈度值的结论性意见则完全一致，因此计算场地烈度的最大熵方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。

According to the maximum entropy principle,Probability density function, repiti-tion interval of exceeding giving value Ij etc. have been deduced.Making use of earthquakedata from 1022 to 1993, the intensity of Taiyuan area is computed because of some earth-quake (Ms≤4)occurred near by it. Comparing the result with the one given by syntheticprobability method,resulting two results of the exceeding probability curve of intensity dur-ing future 100 years coincide with each other.