河南省棉花产量的灰色预测及灾变年份预报

Grey System Forecast of Cotton Yield and Calamity Year in Henan Province

应用灰色系统动态建模的理论和方法,建立了河南省棉花产量预测模型和灾变年份预测模型。模型预测结果:河南省1995年棉花产量水平将达到810kg/hm^2,至2000年将达到960kg/hm^2。灾变年份模型预测,影响河南省棉花产量的第一个灾变年份是1992年,第二个灾变年份是1996年,第三个灾变年份大约发生在2006年。这一预测为河南省棉花生产发展和决策,以及采取相应措施提供科学依据。

By using the theory and method of the dynamic establishing model of greysystem, we established the forecast models of Henan province's cotton yield and calamity year. The yield forecast model indicates that the cotton yield in Henan will reach 810 kg/ha by 1995, and 960 kg/ha by the end of 2000. The calamity year model reveals that the first, second and third calamity year after 1988 will be 1992, 1996 and 2006, respectively. The forecast provides scientific basis for making policies and adopting appropriate measures to guide Henan's Cotten production.