山西省耕地承载能力预测模型

The Prediction Models of Cultivatee land Carrying Capacity in Shanxi Provice

本文应用灰色系统理论,建立GM(1.1)模型,预测山西省2000年人均耕地、粮食单产,得出人均耕地减少速度大于单产增加速度,人均消费粮食趋于减少的结果。解决这问题的关键是解决人地剪刀差问题及提高粮食单产。

This paper predicts the amount of cultivated land per person and theyield of cultivated per mu with theory of grey system by building GM(1. 1) models.Then, it reaches a condusion that the speed of decrease in cultivated Land per person willbe faster than the speed of increase in yield of cultivated land per mu, and that the a-mount of consuming grain per person will tend to derease in the 2000year. The key of so-lution for this problem is to solve the problem of population increase and caltiveted landdecrease and to raise the per mu yield.