摘要
本文中作者以祁连山中段为研究区域提出了评估中长期预报区内烈度的方法。本方法的特点是对相对稳定的发震地段在某预报期内进行烈度概率分析。文申指出了本方法与确定性方法以及地震危险性分析方法的不同之处。计算表明,对本区,烈度提高一度,遭受该烈度袭击的概率即减少20％左右。根据计算结果,将研究区域划分为若干小区,给出了每小区Ⅵ——Ⅷ度发生的概率,并以此作为估算预报期内损失期望值的依据。
In present paper,the author has studied a new method for estimating seismic intensity in long-medium-term forecast region. Middle section of Qilian Mountain in Gansu province has been taken as the research region. The characteristics of the proposed method are probabilistic approach for more or less determined potential seismic area during some forecast period. It is indicated that the proposed method is different from both the determined and seismic hazard analysis. The results of estimation have showed that 20 percent probability will be decreased when expected intensity increases in one degree. According to estimated results, the research region has been departed into several districts and the probability of Ⅵ-Ⅷ intensities have been given for every district, that may be taken as the data for estimating damages and expected losses.
出处
《高原地震》
1993年第3期6-12,共7页
Plateau Earthquake Research
关键词
祁连山中段
中长期预报区
预报区烈度评估
较确定震源
Long—medium—term forecast area Middle section of Qilian Mountain Probabilistic estimation of seismic intensity More or less determined seismic area.
