多层加权平均引导台风路径预报方法

A MULTIPLE-LAYER WEIGHTED MEAN STEERING METHOD OF THE TYPHOON TRACK FORECAST

通过对较多实例的计算分析,建立了应用地面—500hPa 和地面—300hPa 气压加权引导气流的台风路径预报方程。预报试验表明,它们对中、低纬度台风移动有较好的应用前景,文中对这一方法的依据和预报试验结果进行了比较详细的讨论。

According to the calculation and analysis of many cases,four sets of regression equations oftyphoon track forecast,which are derived from the weighted mean steering flows of the pressuresfrom surface to 500hPa and surface to 300hPa levels,are established.The forecast experimentsshow that the equations have better prospect for predicting typhoon tracks in middle and lower lat-itudes.The bases and results of the forecast method are discussed in detail in this paper.