发输电组合系统可靠性评估的事件外推法

Events Expansion Method for Composite-System Reliability Evaluation

计算困难是发输电组合系统可靠性评估面临的主要问题之一。本文提出了元件频率扩展系数等概念,推出了计算扩展失效事件集发生频率的递推公式,从而完善了失效事件扩展理论FEET。并应用该理论,发展了一种发输电组合系统可靠性评估的事件外推法。该方法减小了由于忽略高阶失效事件的影响而造成的计算误差,而且作用比较显著。算例表明,本文方法可使计算误差从12.3～28％减小至1.2～6.3％,相当于计算速度提高了约两个数量级。

The main problem to be dealed with in composite-system reliability evaluation is the 'dimension calamity' of computation. Because of the inherent complexity of computation, only the lower level events are often tested, so the indices evaluated are less reliable It is one of the research tasks how to decrease the error caused by neglecting the effect of higher level events based on the failure events tested. In this paper, a concept defined as frequency expansion factor of components is proposed and the recursion formulae to compute the occuring frequency of the expansion failure events are deduced, thus the FEET (Failure Events Expansion Theory) can be improved. Applying the FEET, a event expansion method for compositensystem reliability evaluation is developed, which is powerful to decrease the error. As shown in the example, the error can be decreased from 12.3-28% to 1.2-6.3%, corresponding to the speed being 100 times as fast as that without making use of FEET.