天山阿拉沟地区泥石流沟危险程度分析

ANALYSIS OF DANGEROUS DEGREES OF DEBRIS FLOW VALLEYS IN ALAGOU BASIN TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

本文用灰色系统理论中的关联度分析方法.确定了阿拉沟地区局部范围内影响泥石流沟谷潜在危险程度的八个因素,确定权重,依此计算泥石流沟谷危险度。泥石流沟谷危险程度较好地反映了泥石流沟谷危险性现状,其研究对本地区交通、经济开发及制定防灾、减灾措施有一定的指导意义.

Eight factors which influence the dangerous degrees of debris flow valleys in the studyarea of Alagou basin were determined with connectivity analysis method of grey systemtheory. On the basis of eight factors, their weighings were determined and the dangerousdegrees of debris flow valleys were calculated. The dangerous degrees of debros flow valleysproperly reflect the present situation of danger of debris flow valleys,the research on whichhas directive significance for traffic, economy developing and formulating measures forprotecting and reducing the harms of debris flows.