工程项目的风险模拟与分析

RISK ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION OF ENGINEERING PROJECTS

从理论上研究工程项目经济评价的风险分析方法。论述了蒙特卡罗模拟在风险分析中的应用;建立了风险因素由非正态分布转变为正态分布的模型;解决了相关联风险因素的风险模拟问题。补充了国家试行的《建设项目经济评估方法与参数》中风险分析的不足。

In this paper, we study the risk analysis method of economic evalution of engineering projects theoretically and introduce Monte Carlo simulation method to risk analysis. Furthmore, we set up a model of transforming unnormal distribution of a risk factor into normal one and solved the problem of risk simulation of dependent risk factors. Thus, the insufficiency in the risk analysis in the book, 'Methods and Parameters of Economic Evalution of Project', is supplemented.