小麦白粉病的流行预测和防治决策研究

STUDIES ON THE PROAGNOSIS AND ACTION THRESHOLD OF WHEAT POWDERY MILDEW

本文利用目前县级植保站积累多年的小麦白粉病调查资料,进行多种流行速率统计方法的比较从中择优建立了全过程的流行速率预测式。并且根据每两期病害增长速率与气象因素相关不甚紧密的统计结果和多年田间实况的观察提出了在一定品种、密度、肥水管理条件下,白粉病一旦发生就会按大体一定速率增长的假说。同时建立了小麦扬花期和千粒重损失的预测式,经过病叶率的转换,再依据产量水平、防治费用、产品价格等信息输入,组建以经济阈值为决策信息的白粉病防治决策模型。

Based on the historical data of disease monitoring co- nducted by County Station of Plant Protection,disease prediction equ- ations for-wheat powdery mildew were built by means of mathematical analysis of apparent infection rate and corresponding climatic record. According the result of analysis and the long term experiences of the authors,it seemed to be that under certain culture conditions,inclu- ding,cultivar,density of planting,and amount of nitrogen fertilizer, the progress of epidemic go on according a more or less constant rate and the apparent infection rate of wheat powdery mildew,being more sensitive to culture conditions,do not vary sensitively enough with coinciding daily-variation of the weather condition.Loss assessment equation and economic threshold were also developed,and action thre- shold was subsequently deduced.