冬小麦病害防治效果模拟模型(ESWDC)的初步设计

EFFECT SIMULATION MODEL OF WINTER WHEAT DISEASE CONTROL

冬小麦病害防治效果模拟模型(ESWDC)是在前人的工作基础上建立的。它以小麦条锈、叶锈、白粉、纹枯四种病害为对象,以获得最佳经济、生态、社会三大效益为目的,是一防治效果模型。当输入病害及不同防治措施(品种、栽培、播期、化防等)时,输出项则是各阶段病情及最终的效益值。病害数量发展分别用逻辑斯蒂模型或单利病害模型推算,依病害种类而定。防治措施通过影响 X_6及 r 值而影响病害的发展。ESWDC 模型可在微机上实现,具有快速、合理、实用之特点。

The Effect Simulation Model of Winter Wheat Disease Control (ESWDC)was esteblished on the base of previous reseaehers. Stripe rust,leaf rust,powdery mildew,and rhizoctonia eerealis of wheat are the object of the moldel which may give output of three benefits(economic,ecological,and social benefits)after inputing aseries of control measures(sowing date,cultivar variety,chemical control, and so on).Disease epidemic development was described by Logistic equation:X_t/(1-X_t)=[X_0/(1-X_0)]*exp(r*1).the r and X,in the equation were the factors by affecting them control mesures may reduce or restrain disease development.The computer program of the ESWDC model was compiled by pASCAL language,and can be impleme- nted on IBM personal computers.It has the advantages of using less co- mputer time and giving out liable result. In this paper,first,principles,then,designing and structure of ESWDC model were described.At the end,some problems werer disc- ussed.