小麦多病害风险分析的研究

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE RISK ASSESSMENT OF MULTIPLE DISEASES MANAGEMENT OF WHEAT

应用天气模型和小麦多病害流行模拟模型,探讨了用模型进行小麦多病害流行风险分析的方法,天气模型可以产生随机模拟的气象记录,包括日最高温、最低温、日降雨量和日辐射。多病害流行模拟模型将天气模型输出的气象记录作为天气条件的输入文件,运转后产生在一定初菌量条件下的产量损失模拟值。两个模型的连接实现了不同天气条件和不同初菌量组合下的随机模拟。通过对若干个模拟结果进行概率统计分析,获得具有概率意义的风险信息。本研究分四个模拟单元,对不同组合条件下小麦病害流行所致产量损失的风险做了研究,并就北京和甘谷两个地区为例,探讨了风险表的建造方法,就存在问题及改进之处做了讨论。

The weather simulation model and multiple wheat disea- ses simulation model were used to study the method of risk assessme- nt of disease epidemics on wheat with model.Stochastic weather reco- rds including daily maximum and minimum temperature,daily rainfall and solar radiation could be simulated and produced by the weather model.These records were used to make a input weather data file which would be read by multiple disease simulation model.From that, the simulated yield loss under certain initial inoculum condition were produced.Stochastic simulations under different combinations of weather and initial inoculum were made by linking of these two models.The information about risk assessment with statistical meaning were obtai- ned from statistical analysis on simulation results.Four sets of simula- tion experiments were performed to study the risk of yield loss on wheat caused by diseases under different combination of weather and initial inoculum conditions.Two examples in Beijing and Gango areas were made to study the method of structuring risk assessment table. The problems and improvements were discussed.