气温变化对天津大北乡农业生产的影响及对策

IMPACTS OF AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND THE COUNTERMEASURES IN DABEIXIANG OF TIANJIN

本文根据系统科学的原理,采用模糊数学、统计学和运筹学等方法分析、预测了气温变化对天津大北乡农业生产的影响情况,并提出了1988年气温增减变化1℃情况下大北乡农、林、牧、渔业结构的最优方案。结果表明,当气温增加1℃时,一年二熟制歉年方案或二年三熟制歉年方案较好;当气温降低1℃时,一年一熟制歉年方案较其它方案为好。

According to the principle of system science,using fuzzy mathematics,statistics and opera-tion research,the impacts of air temperature change on the agriculture production in Dabeixiangof Tianjin were estimated,and the optimal countermeasures against arranging production wereproposed.The results show that when the average temperature increases 1.0℃,the double crop-ping and/or tripple cropping in two years lean year schemes would be better than the others,when the average temperature decreases 1.0℃,the single cropping lean year scheme would bebetter than the others.