摘要
Based on the environmental and crop data at Zhenjiang City, in Jiangsu Province, middle east of China, the growing process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-Wheat model assuming the daily average temperature is 1℃ to 2℃ higher than at the present, which are mostly possible for the change of climate because of enrichment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The simulation results show that warming climate can promote development rate and shorten phenological stages of wheat, and the grain yield will be higher than present. Its impact on the kernel weight and grains per square meter were different for the plantings of various sowing dates. The results of this study suggest that substantial changes in agricultural production and management practices are needed to respond to the climatic changes expected to take place in China.
Based on the environmental and crop data at Zhenjiang City, in Jiangsu Province, middle east of China, the growing process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-Wheat model assuming the daily average temperature is 1℃ to 2℃ higher than at the present, which are mostly possible for the change of climate because of enrichment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The simulation results show that warming climate can promote development rate and shorten phenological stages of wheat, and the grain yield will be higher than present. Its impact on the kernel weight and grains per square meter were different for the plantings of various sowing dates. The results of this study suggest that substantial changes in agricultural production and management practices are needed to respond to the climatic changes expected to take place in China.
