新疆玛纳斯河流域50年来气候变化及其对木本植物物候期的影响

Climate Change During the Past 50 Years and Its Impact on Phenophase of Woody Plants in Manas River Valley, Xinjiang

以中亚典型冰川融化区新疆玛纳斯河流域为例,分析了50年来气候变化趋势及周期性波动规律,并阐明当地主要木本植物物候变化及对气候变化的响应。研究结果表明:玛纳斯河流域气候总体趋向于暖湿方向的发展,其中非作物生长季的增温幅度较大,而作物生长季降水量的增加幅度较大。气温与降水的周期震荡存在较大差异,但均在10年尺度下表现为频繁的偏高期和偏低期的循环交替,反映出短期气候变化的复杂性和无常性。箭杆杨、柳树、新疆杨和榆树4种主要木本植物的落叶末期和生长季变化的倾向率均为正值,说明物候现象均有不同程度提早发生的趋势。气温、降水和日照时数的变化趋势与4种木本植物的物候期的变化趋势在一定程度上存在着一致性,同时建立了木本植物物候期和气候因子之间的最优回归方程。

The Manas River valley, which is the typical inland river formed from glacier-melted water in the Central Asia, was chosen as the sample. The trend and periodic fluctuation of climate change during the past five decades was analyzed, and the phenophase change and the response to climate change of locally main woody plants was illustrated. The results showed that the climate in Manas River valley generally trended to be warm and humid in the recent five decades. The degree of temperature rise was larger in the non-crop growing season than that in crop growing season, while the increment of precipitation was larger in crop growing season. The annual temperature exhibited a circular alternation from higher period to lower period under the scale of ten years, and the number of points of abrupt climate change increased, which indicated the complexity and uncertainty in the short-period climate fluctuation existing in this region. The inclination rate between the deciduous end and growing season in the main woody plants, for example Lombardy poplar, willows, Xinjiang poplar, and elm, is positive, which indicated phenological phenomena of woody plant occurred early. The regression coefficients between woody plants and climate factors were established to indicate that woody plant kept the same change trend with the temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours.