建立地质灾害预警研究体系——对地质灾害防治战略研究的几点意见

BUILD UP THE FORECAST-WARNING STUDY SYSTEM OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD ——Some Opinion on Strategic Study for Geological Hazard Control

地质灾害预警研究体系应建立在对我国地质灾害的灾情及通过防灾可以获得减灾增值效益的认识基础上。推行长、中、短,临综合预报,多渠道集资并保证一定的投入强度。实现现代化的科学管理,建立中央信息及项目管理系统。

The natural disaters are very grave in our country, also the geological disaters occur frequently with stress on exogenic process origin, but almost of them can be reduced or averted through prevention and harness. ' Reducing disaster means increase production ', so that the consciousness of hazard prevention must be deepened.To pursue comprehensive prediction of geological hazard proposed in this paper in which the long-term prediction ought to be based on the study of foundational theory concerning the mechanism and formation of geological disaster. The medium-range prediction ought to be based on the prevention of geological hazard. The short-range prediction ought to be based on hazard control & harness. And the impending disaster prediction must be determined by preparation of reserved relief programme.The outlay for above mentioned works may be adopted a policy of many-sided accumulation, such as levying taxes for protecting environment, drawing found from invcstmint of capital projects, and conducting environmental insurance etc. The strength of investment for control geological hazard must come up to a needful threshold in order to realize returns.Finally, we must put into effect the administration onto modernized scientific level, establish different service and decision support systems in central management office, carry out centralized management about information and project of geological hazards and disas tcrs.Do our best in the activity of 'The International Decade for Natural Hazarde Reduction'.