地震综合预报的一个信息方法

AN INFORMATION METHOD FOR SYNTHETIC PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE

本文应用信息论的观点,通过华北近二十年中发生的Ms5级以上地震资料,计算出了各前兆手段的信息量,用这个量值对前兆观测手段的预报效能进行评定。应用熵的最小原理计算了用于地震综合预报的数据,并列成应用方便的表格,当有一定数量的前兆异常时,可以利用该表格预测未来一段时间内可能发生地震的强度。文章最后还给出了预测地震强度的概率。

On the basis of data of Ms≥5 earthquakes occurred in Huabei during last twenty years, we computed information content of every precursory method by meaus of the view of infor- mation theory. We judged prediction efficiency of every precursory method using the informa- tion content, and gave the data in lable form for synthetic prediction of earthquake by the principle of the least entropy.