重正化群方法及空区危险性的研究

A RENORMALIZATION GROUP APPROACH TO EARTHQUAKE RISK STUDY OF SEISMIC GAP

本文用系统科学的观点以及重正化群方法研究了地震孕育的组合模式中应力积累单元进入非线性阶段后,一维和二维震源体的破裂问题,得到了震源体破裂概率的临界值分别为0.2063和0.1707。进一步我们得到了空区的围空震能量之和与参考能量之比为0.1872,这是一个关于地震空区危险性的新的定量化指标。我们检验了大华北地区1967—1980年的十个地震空区和1982—1986年大华北地区所有起始震级为M_L=2.3级的地震空区,检验结果是令人满意的。初步认为空区的能量的临界值0.1872可以作为空区危险性的判别指标。

From the point of view of system science, we discussed the rupture of a seismic system, with the renormalization group mathod, we discussed the seismic dangerous of a system, which was in the nonliner period of stress accumulation. On the basis of the combination model, we made a transformation on the stress accumulation unit, and we got the critical values of rupture probability for the one-dimension and two-dimension siesmic system. Further we got critical value of energy for the seismic gap and the rate of the gap energy to the reference energy which is 0.1872. We also caculated the rate of some gaps in the easten part of China. The results were satisfactory.