珠江三角洲稻田区黄毛鼠种群动态预测模型的研究

Studies on the Predicting Model of Rattus rattoides Population Dynamics of Rice Field in Pearl River Delta

本文研究稻田区黄毛鼠种群动态预测模型,利用数量化理论Ⅰ建立起预测模型。在预测方程中考虑七类与黄毛鼠生存有关的生态因子,即繁殖指数,降雨量、相对湿度、平均温度、农时变化,作物换茬和季节变化。本文还利用偏相关系数的T检验,分析影响黄毛鼠种群数量变化的主、次要生态因子。其中繁殖指数、作物换茬、农时变化和季节变化为主要影响因子。同时采用双因素方差分析讨论了1987—1989年降雨量的变化,认为年度间降雨量差异不明显,月份间降雨量差异明显。还分析了作物换茬,农时变化种群密度的影响。

The predicting model of Rattus rattoides population dynamics of rice field was studied from Januray, 1987 to December, 1989 in Humen Region, Pearl River Delta. Byquantification theory I, the predicting model was established. Seven ecological fac tors(reproductive index, rainfall, relative humidity, even temperature, farming season, change of crop and seasonal variation)were selected. Based on the t-test of partial corretation coefficient, the main factors which exerted notable influence on population dynamics were reproductive index, Change of crop, farming season and seasonal change. The paper still analysed the data of rainfall, relative humidity and even temperature from Janurary, 1987 to Janurary, 1989 by variance analysis. The result analysed the variation of these factors was no significat differnce befween year and year, but significat differnce befween month and month.