医院病床发展需求预测(摘要)

Forecast of the Demand for Hospital Beds

本文试图用皮尔—利特曲线数学模型对医院病床发展需求预测作一些探讨,为管理决策提供一些科学依据。本文预测平均误差为0.06((?)t=0.06),实际值和预测值经列联表卡方检验(P>0.05)。故选择皮尔—利特曲线模型作为医院病床需求预测是可行的。

Statistical forecast is baesed on the investigation data.According to the law that things are correlative and the low of development,we can forecast indirectly the prospect and estimate the future status. This paper attempts to use the R.pearl-L.J.Reed methematical model to approach the forecast of the demand for hospital beds,and to provide scientific basis for management.The mean square error forecasted in this paper is 0.06(et=0.06)and the difference between the actual value and forecast value tested by contingency table chi-test is not significant (P>0.05).So the error is very useful to select the R.pearl-L.J.Reed to forecast the demand for hospital beds.