苏联为什么会终结?

Why the Soviet Union Ended?

1991年3月17日全苏公投仍有高达76%民众支持保留共同国家。但不到9个月之后,别洛韦日森林声明即宣布苏联终止存在。假如在公投举行以后,不是采取建立主权国家联盟的方针,而是循序渐进地建立一个"软"联邦,一开始仅限于建议签订建立共同经济空间的协议,分离主义者的目的就不会达到。"8·19"事件更多是起了雷管的作用。先前的发展方式挖了苏联的墙角。导致苏联垮台的深层次经济原因体现在行政管理体系的结构性危机上。而由国家结构中长期缺乏联邦制引发的中央与各加盟共和国关系的危机,是苏联解体的另一个最重要的原因。保留苏共作为确保苏联统一的机制,其必要条件是党本身的民主化。制约苏共民主化的主要力量是党的机关,它实际上处于选举出来的党的机构之上。在帮助苏联走出经济困境方面,西方甚至"连手指头都没有动一下"。而困难至极的经济形势在很大程度上注定了苏联的解体。

In the referendum of the Soviet Union, on 17th, March, 1991, 76% of the population still voted for the maintenance of the union. While, no more than nine months later, Belovezhskaya Forest Statement stated that the Soviet Union ceased its existence. Provided that a soft federation was established gradually, rather than policy of founding a sovereign state union being adopted, separatists would not reach their aims. ＂8.19＂ Event was more of a detonator. Previous development mode undermined the foundation of the Soviet. The deep economic reasons on the breakdown of the Soviet are reflected on the structural crisis of the administrative management system. And another paramount reason for the collapse of the Soviet is the relation crisis between the central government and the allied republic countries, which was triggered by the lack of the federation in the country structure in the long-term. The mechanism of retaining the Soviet Communist Party as assurance of the unification of the Soviet Union has its prerequisite as democratization of the Party itself. The main force that restrained the democratization of the Party comes from the organs of the Party, which were above the organization of the elected Party. As for helping the Soviet out of economic predicament, the West even ＂did not move its fingers＂, while the austere economic situation, to a large extent, doomed the collapse of the Soviet.