广东地区平均气温的时空变化特征

Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Average Temperature in Guangdong

利用广东37个地面气象观测站1960-2009年逐月、逐年平均气温资料,运用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验等方法对近50a来平均气温变化的时空特征进行分析,以了解广东各地气温变化特征,为广东气候资源的合理开发利用提供依据。结果表明,广东年和四季平均气温自20世纪80年代开始上升,增加速率为0.20℃/10a(P<0.05),四季中冬季气温上升对增温贡献最大,变化速率达0.34℃/10a(P<0.05)。广东各地气温变化情况不一致,珠江三角洲及东南部沿海是广东升温最明显区域,增温速率为0.25～0.40℃/10a(P<0.05),冬季增温速率更高,达0.43～0.55℃/10a(P<0.05),同时,该地区发生增温突变的时间也较早,普遍出现在20世纪80年代后期;广东的北部地区温度变化较不明显,其中东北部偏北地区春、夏季甚至出现平均气温下降现象,除冬季外,其它季节增温突变检验结果不显著。

Based on 1960-2009 temperature observation data collected from 37 meteorological stations in Guangdong province,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of average temperature change over recent 50 years was identified by using linear trend estimation,M-K mutation testing methods,to find out the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of average temperature in Guangdong and provide scientific basis for using and development the climate resources in Guangdong reasonably.The results showed that annual and seasonal average temperature in Guangdong had increased since 1980s,with annual rising rate of 0.20℃/10y（P0.05）.Winter had greatest contribution to the warming.Its changing rate reached 0.34℃/10y（P0.05）.Temperature variation was unbalanced over Guangdong province.Guangdong pearl river delta and the southeastern coastal region had the most significant temperature increase.Its annual warming rate reached 0.25～0.40℃/10y（P0.05） and winter＇s reached 0.43～0.55℃/10y（P0.05）.Warming mutations occurred early,mostly from 1980s and changed dramatically in those areas.In northern Guangdong province,temperature variation was less significant.In spring and summer,annual temperature drop even happened in northeastern region.Except for winter,the temperature mutation test results in other seasons were not significant.