新疆乌昌地区热量资源精细化时空变化分析

Analysis of Fine Spatial-temporal Variation of Agroclimatic Heat Resource in Urumqi-Changji Region of Xinjiang

利用新疆乌鲁木齐市和昌吉回族自治州16个气象站1961-2009年的逐日平均气温和最低气温资料,使用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检测以及基于ArcGIS的三维二次趋势面宏观地理因子模拟与反距离加权残差订正相结合的方法对农业气候热量要素的变化趋势、突变特性、各热量要素多年平均值及其突变前后变化量的精细化空间分布进行研究。结果表明:乌昌地区热量资源具有显著的区域性差异,年平均气温、7月平均气温、无霜冻期、≥0℃和≥10℃活动积温在空间分布上均表现为"平原高于山区、北部高于南部"的格局。受冬季逆温的影响,在山前倾斜平原至中山带,1月平均气温较北部平原和高山带高,而冬季负积温较北部平原和高山带少。在全球变暖背景下,近49a,乌昌地区年平均气温、1月和7月平均气温、≥0℃和≥10℃活动积温以及无霜冻期均有不同程度的升高或增多趋势,并于1973-2004年间先后发生了突变性的升高或增多,冬季负积温呈显著的减少趋势,并于1988年发生了突变性的减少,热量资源总体呈较明显的增多趋势。但各地热量资源的变化具有显著的区域性差异,突变后较突变前各热量要素增加量的空间分布总体表现为"平原多于山区,城市密集区多于周边地区"的分布格局。

Based on the daily average temperature and extreme minimum temperature data of sixteen meteorological stations during 1961-2009 in Urumqi city and Changji Hui national autonomous prefecture of Xinjiang（Urumqi-Changji region）,the fundamental fine spatial-temporal change characteristic of various agroclimatic heat elements,such as the mean temperature of annual,January and July,the annual accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃,frost-free period and the negative accumulated temperature in winter,were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression,Mann-Kendall test and three-dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and inverse-distance square weighting residual error revising based on ArcGIS.The main results were as the follows： the agroclimatic heat resource was very obviously different in different regions in Urumqi-Changji region.Generally,the average temperature of annual and July were higher,and the annual accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ and the frost-free period were more in plain and valley than that in mountain areas,and western were more than eastern,but by the influence of winter inversion,January mean temperature was higher and the negative accumulated temperature was less in piedmont sloping plain to hillside central of Tianshan mountain than in northern plains and higher mountain areas in Urumqi-Changji region.In the background of global warming,agroclimatic heat resources have a significant increasing in recent 49 years in Urumqi-Changji region,generally,the mean temperature of annual,January and July,accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃,frost-free period have a significant increasing trend,and them had the discontinuity increased in 1973 to 2004 respectively,negative accumulated temperature had a significant decreasing trend and it had the discontinuity reduced in 1988.But the change range of before and after various agroclimatic heat elements have discontinuity changed were larger in plain than in mountain areas,and larger in urban than in suburban.