临夏州马铃薯晚疫病始发期的预测预报

Forecast of the Beginning Date for Potato Late Blight in Linxia

马铃薯是临夏州主要种植作物,随着种植区域的扩展,马铃薯晚疫病危害程度呈上升趋势,已成为制约马铃薯产业发展的主要因素之一。传统的晚疫病预测预报技术参数主要来源于干旱山区,在川塬区和二阴区预报准确率较低。本文依据多个试验点连续3a的观测资料,研究得出2个较好的预测模型:临夏州干旱山区马铃薯晚疫病始发期(Y)与8月上旬降水量(X)之间呈显著负相关关系,其线性回归方程为Y=9.1699-0.0153X(F=35.8>F0.01),预测准确率达到100%;二阴区马铃薯晚疫病始发期与7月上旬温度(X1)、空气湿度(X2)呈显著负相关,其线性回归方程为Y=13.8180-0.1970X1-0.0403X2,预测准确率达到83%。

Potato late blight（Phytophthora infestans de Bary）has been a uptrend in recent years in Linxia Hui autonomous prefecture（addr.Linxia） as the production scale of potato for seeds and vegetables was extended quickly,and this disease has become one of the main limited factors in the production of potato in this prefecture.The traditional forecasting method for this disease was usually for the drought mountain area in this prefecture,and its accuracy was very lower when used in the plain-plateau area and high-humid mountain area in this prefecture.In order to meet the need of potato production,the two linear regression models to forecast the beginningdate of potato late blight（Y） were built,based on the three year survey data in different areas.Y=9.1699-0.0153X,based on the rainfall in the first ten days of August（X）,was very suitable for the drought mountain area,and its forecasting accuracy was 100%.The beginning date of potato late blight（Y） in thehigh-humid mountain areawas related close to the temperature（X1） and air humidity（X2） of the first ten days of July,and the forecasting model was Y=13.8180-0.1970X1-0.0403X2,with a accuracy of 83%.