极端气候对福建省橄榄产量影响的风险评估

Risk Assessment of Extreme Climate on Olive Yield in Fujian Province

橄榄风险评估对其合理布局和防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文利用福建省橄榄种植区历年气象资料、橄榄种植面积、产量及其它社会经济资料,构建出由致灾因子危险性、承险体脆弱性以及种植区防灾减灾能力组成的极端气候对福建省橄榄产量影响风险指标体系;综合应用层次分析法、专家打分法和熵权系数法确定出风险评估指标权重;采用多指标综合评估法构建风险评估模型,以评估极端气候对橄榄产量影响的风险。结果表明:长乐市以南沿海低海拔橄榄种植区的极端气候对橄榄产量影响风险属轻度,主要原因是该区域致灾因子危险性较轻,脆弱性属轻度至中度,防灾减灾能力较高;重度以上的风险区域主要分布在尤溪县、上杭县、宁德市山区、福州内陆县(市)、莆田市西北部山区、安溪县西部、漳州市西部山区,主要原因是该区域的致灾因子危险性高,尤其以冻害危险性最大,同时防灾减灾能力也较低,部分县(市)种植面积大而导致脆弱性风险也加大;其余种植区的综合风险属中度。

Risk assessment on olive had significant for its rational distribution and disaster prevention and mitigation.Risk index system of impacts of extreme climate on olive yield in Fujian province,including hazard of the disaster-causing factors,vulnerability of the hazard-affected body and disaster carrying capability,was established in this paper,based on meteorological data,planting area and yield of olive,and other socio-economic data.The risk assessment was conducted by this model.The results showed that light risk region was located in the southern of Changle city,where disaster-causing factors were lighter and latitude was low.Severe risk region was located in Youxi,Shanghang,mountainous areas of Ningde,inland counties of Fuzhou,northwest mountainous areas of Putian,west of Anxi and west mountainous areas of Zhangzhou,because disaster-causing factors were higher in these regions,especially for freezing damage.Other regions were moderate risk.