2011～2012年经济形势分析与展望

Analysis and Prospect of the Economic Situation in 2011～2012

通过分析,本文认为2011年我国经济在转型过程中继续向好的方面发展,流动性过剩、物价上涨、房地产泡沫化问题得到有效控制,经济增速平缓下调,结构调整和发展方式转变力度加大。全年经济增长率预计略高于9%,CPI上涨5%左右。预计2012年物价涨幅总体趋降,CPI涨幅在3%左右;经济增长速度继续下降,GDP增长率略高于8%;经济发展面临着企业困难加大、就业压力加大、金融系统风险加大等突出问题。须统筹协调好控物价、稳增长、调结构、转方式之间的关系。

Based on an extensive analysis, this paper holds that, in the course of the economic transition in 2011, the Chinese economy continues to develop in the healthy way. Problems such as excessive liquidity, rising price, real estate bubble have been effectively controlled. The economic growth rate is smoothly reduced, while more efforts in structural readjustment and developmental mode transition have been strengthened. The annual economic growth rate is estimated to be slightly higher than 9% and CPI rises by 5%. It is predicted that in 2012, the price rising rate will generally go down, with CPI estimated to be around 3%. The economic growth rate will keep going down, with an annual GPD growth rate slightly higher than 8%. Major problems loom ahead in economic development, such as intensified difficulties for enterprises, higher unemployment pressure, and greater risks within financial system. Measures should be taken to handle well the relationships among price control, hidden growth, structural readjustment and developmental mode transition.