跨经济周期的资产轮动模式——兼谈美林投资钟的缺陷及修正

Asset Rotation Model Across Business Cycle——Amendments and Enlargement to Merlyn's Investment Clock

美林投资钟是以经济周期为框架的最为著名的资产配置模型,但其主要是提供了一种研究的思路和方式,依然存在不足和缺陷。美林投资钟把滞胀作为经济周期第四阶段的假定是有悖于传统经济学的;凯恩斯主义认为,滞胀是经济周期中的特殊现象,而不是必经阶段。文章从非经典周期资产配置的角度,在理论上对美林投资钟作出修正和补充,以使之更完整和适用。

Merlyn＇s Investment Clock is one of the most famous asset allocation models which are based on the framework of business cycle, but this paper find it mainly provided a study of ideas and methods, still being incomplete and deficient. Merlyn considered that the stagflation were the fourth phase of business cycle is contrary to traditional economics. Keynesianism view that stagflation is a special phenomenon rather than a necessary stage. This paper from the non-classic business cycle point of view modifies and enlarges Merlyn＇s Investment Clock to make it more perfect and available.