挥发性有机物税收政策对我国经济的影响分析

VOCs Tax Policy on China's Economy Development

基于可计算的一般均衡模型,引入不同税率的间接税作为环境税的征收方式,在3种情景下对挥发性有机物的减排效果以及对我国宏观经济和产业部门的影响进行了分析.模型运算结果表明,从环境角度分析,对主要挥发性有机物排放部门征收间接税,对其排放起到了立竿见影的控制作用.从经济角度来看,环境税对国民经济发展的宏观指标,比如国民生产总值、总投入、总产出和消费等都产生了负面的影响,仅对政府收入的提高有促进作用.并且税率越高,对污染的控制力度越强,对经济的发展的影响也越加地明显.本文建议,挥发性有机物排放量的控制政策,需要以行政命令型控制手段为主,以逐步在重点污染排放行业征收低的间接税收政策为辅.

In this paper,environmental tax was designed to control volatile organic compounds（VOCs） emissions.computable general equilibrium（CGE） model was used to explore the impacts of environmental tax（in forms of indirect tax） on the macro-economy development at both national and sector levels.Different levels of tax were simulated to find out the proper tax rate.It is found out that imposing environmental tax on high emission sectors can cause the emission decreased immediately and can lead to negative impacts on macro-economy indicators,such as GDP（gross domestic products）,total investment,total product and the whole consumption etc.However,only the government income increased.In addition,the higher the tax rate is,the more pollutants can be reduced and the worse economic effects can be caused.Consequently,it is suggested that,the main controlling policies of VOCs abatement should be mandatory orders,and low environmental tax can be implemented as a supplementary.