经济滞胀风险及其宏观政策选择

Stagflation Danger and The Choice of Macro Policy

我国经济的深层隐患不仅是通胀问题,更是通胀、停滞与失业并存的"滞胀"问题。相关分析表明,滞胀的风险来自于"投资拉动、出口依赖"的经济增长方式、货币超经济发行、流动性过剩、收入分配失衡、外部输入性以及不合理的经济体制等因素的叠加作用。抑制政府的投资冲动和财政需求,保障民生、促进社会公平、培育新的经济增长点,实现经济的内生型增长是今后我国宏观政策的关键所在。

The potential danger of Chinese economy is not only the problem of inflation; what＇ s worse, the problem of striation along with inflation, stagnation and unemployment. The relevant analysis shows that the danger involved in stagtlation comes from the superposition of the economic increase in ＂investment stim- nlation and export dependence＂, currency issue, liquidity surplus , imbalance in the distribution of income, external input and economical system. So the most important in our future macroeconomic policy is to inhibit the government＇ s investment impulse and financial demand, protect people＇ s livelihood, promote social fairness, foster new economic point of growth and realize economic endogenous growth.